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S-Curve / S曲线

S-Curve (Technology S-Curve): Technology performance improvements tend to progress over time in the form of an “S” curve. When first invented, technology performance improves slowly and incrementally. Then, as experience with a new technology accrues, the rate of performance increase grows and technology performance increases by leaps and bounds. Finally, some of the performance limits of a new technology start to be reached and performance growth slows. At some point, the limits of the technology may be reached and further improvements are not made. Frequently, the technology then becomes vulnerable to a substitute technology that is capable of making additional performance improvements. The substitute technology is usually on the lower, slower portion of its own “S” curve and quickly overtakes the original technology when performance accelerates during the middle (vertical) portion of the “S”.

S曲线(技术—S曲线):技术绩效改进随着时间而呈现“S”形曲线。在新产品开发初期,技术绩效改进曲线会缓慢逐步上升。随着开发新技术的经验不断积累,绩效增加和技术绩效呈跨越式增长。最后,新产品技术接近绩效极限后,技术绩效的增长速度放缓。在某一节点,技术开发达到极限点,而进一步改进尚未完成。此时,原技术往往被另一种能实现更多绩效改进的技术所替代。这种替代技术处于自身S曲线的下端,并在其快速成长期到达S曲线的中间垂直)部分时,迅速取代原有技术。

参考:《产品经理认证(NPDP)知识体系指南》 P24

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